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NittanyWhiteOut

“Over-ra-ted”

The chants would rain down as the clock winds down, the home underdog clinching victory from a ranked opponent. It’s a scene college football fans are all too familiar with in the past few seasons as upsets littered the college football landscape.

But were they? Who is in fact, the most overrated team of the past decade?

Since the adoption of the BCS, a team’s position in the preseason rankings has a direct impact on its shot at playing for the title by seasons end more than ever.

Exhibit A: Auburn in 2004. USC and Oklahoma, ranked #1 and #2 during the preseason never relinquished their stranglehold on the top 2 spots until USC beat the Sonners in the championship game at seasons end. Auburn started off ranked #17 in the AP preseason poll was shut out of the title game despite also going undefeated eventually ending up ranked #2 behind preseason #1 USC in the final poll.

So even the dubiously insignificant preseason poll which is released weeks before the first snap is even played, has a major impact on determining the chances of each team’s title chances come early January.

Since the 2000 AP preseason poll, 73 different squads have secured a spot on either it’s preseason or season-ending version, but in the 16 seasons between 1991 to 2007, college football’s champion has come from outside the Top 10 only 4 times (#14 Michigan in 1997, #19 Oklahoma in 2000, #13 Ohio State in 2002, and #14 LSU in 2004).

During the last 22 seasons, 15 teams have lost a game and still managed to finish the regular season ranked in the top 2 in the BCS standings qualifying for a coveted championship game spot. But only one of those teams, LSU in 2003, started off the season ranked lower than 8th in the preseason poll.

So unless you are fortunately enough to find your squad in the Top 10 in this season’s upcoming preseason poll, your best bet at a shot at the national championship is an undefeated season.

So we at NittanyWhiteOut, set out to find which teams were the most overrated and underrated in the last decade starting with the 2000 preseason AP poll.

We took each team’s preseason ranking in the AP Top 25 poll and calculated it against where that team finished the season. For example, if Penn State was ranked #10 in the preseason poll and eventually finished #20 in the final season-ending version, Penn State ends up with -5 points.

Teams that started or finished the season unranked was given a ranking of #26. So if Penn State started the season ranked #15 and ended up unranked, it would end up with -11 points and vice versa.

This was calculated for every season starting in 2000 and the Delta (difference between preseason and final rankings) is accumulated.

Keep in mind I am well aware of the limitations of such a formula. An example, if a team is ranked #1 every single year since 2000 and won the championship 8 out of 9 years, but fell from the top spot to unranked in one season (-26 points in one season), that team would be considered one of the more overrated squads according to this formula. It is also much harder for a team that enters a season ranked in the Top 5 to improve than it is for a team ranked #24 in the preseason. Hence the teams that normally perform well and hold high expectations according to AP voters prior to each season are penalized. Ultimately the best way to use the formula would be to rank all 117 teams from 1 to 117 during the preseason and final version of the poll.

Unfortunately the AP does not rank teams past the Top 25 and although I acknowledge the limitations of the formula, it does provide for a great estimation as to the most overrated and underrated teams of the past decade.

With that all in mind, we hereby present the most overrated team of the last decade by the AP poll …

Florida State

The Bobby Bowden coached juggernaut of the 1990s has been demoted to the most overrated team of the past decade. In fact, the Seminoles are one of only 8 squads to be ranked in every preseason AND postseason AP poll since the 1999-2000 season. In the 10 seasons since 2000 though, Florida State finished with a lower ranking than they started with 8 times with the biggest drop coming in 2002 when they started off #3 with high expectations only to finish #21. The Seminoles finished the season unranked in 3 of the last 4 seasons, a stunning stat when you consider they have been a mainstay in the AP poll for 2 decades.

On the flip side, the most underrated team of the last decade is

Boise State

The upstart mid major program was ranked 3 times in the preseason version of the AP poll (Boise State did end up unranked in 2 of the 3 times they started the season ranked) during the last decade, but finished ranked in the final Top 25 on 6 occasions. Not surprisingly, Utah and TCU joins Boise State among the most underrated teams of the last decade often exceeding expectations around the country by seasons end.

• This brings us to conference rankings. The most overrated conference of the last decade is the Big 12 (-81) followed immediately by the ACC (-80), then the SEC (-79). Combined, Big Ten squads also sit in the overrated region of the list, but at -20 it means pollsters most often than not, are generally accurate in their preseason polls when it comes to Big Ten squads. The most underrated automatic qualifying conference in the nation? The Pac-10 (42) followed surprisingly by the Big East (32), the only two AQ conferences in the black.

• Those numbers however do not even come close to the collection of non-AQ conference members (214) who are the most underrated (collection of) conferences of the past decade. Boise State, Utah and TCU sitting #1, #2, and #3 on the underrated list respectively had alot to do with that astounding number.

• Of the last 10 champions, all but 1 were among college football’s most overrated during the preseason in the last decade. The 1? Alabama, who is the 9th most underrated team of the last decade. Is there an inherent advantage of being overrated in the preseason? I should think so.

Penn State is among the nation’s Top 10 most underrated teams of the past decade, sitting at #10 on the list. The Nittany Lions managed to exceed or match preseason expectations on 4 occasions.

The entire list compiled into a table for your viewing pleasure.

Related Posts:

1. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Special Teams
2. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Wide Receivers
3. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Safety

NittanyWhiteOut

So much for the denials and being discrete.

Following Nebraska’s example on Wednesday, Colorado announced a move of their own, except to the Pac-10 conference. A switch also confirmed by the Pac 10 conference today, thereby welcoming the Colorado Buffaloes as the 11th member of the Pac 10 conference. It also means the certain demise of the Big 12 conference as we know it.

Colorado is only one of the several Big 12 teams currently targeted by the Pac-10 over the last week, but unlike the Texas / Texas A&M / Tech or Oklahoma / Oklahoma State packages, the Buffaloes were the only ones that didn’t come as part of a package deal. A political/academic hurdle that is clearly slowing down decisions in Austin and Norman.

This move comes as no surprise ever since Colorado was mentioned as part of the 6 team raid by the Pac-10 conference. Colorado and the Pac-10, much like Notre Dame and the Big 10, has always been a more natural fit. Academically, the Buffaloes are part of the Association of American Universities (AAU), a research-intensive consortium that also includes 8 of the 10 existing members of the Pac-10. Colorado currently has more joint research projects with Pac-10 institutions than with the Big 12.

As for an athletic and cultural fit, you really only have to ask yourselves whether Colorado fans are more eager to travel to Eugene, Tempe, Los Angeles and Seattle or Lawrence, Waco, and Lubbock.

Athletically, Colorado still lags far behind its new conference mates. Currently, they only field 11 teams that compete on the Division I level, compared to the 35+ Division I teams field by fellow Pac-10 member Stanford. Colorado doesn’t even field a baseball or softball team, almost blasphemous when you consider the importance the Pac-10 conference places in both sports, especially softball; Pac-10 teams have won 23 of the 28 Women’s College World Series ever held. Overall, Per latest Director’s Cup standings, Colorado is ranked #76 comparable to fellow Pac-10 members Oregon State (#73), but would still represent the lowest ranked Pac-10 member in the standings.

Logistically, this can be considered a victory for the Pac-10 conference looking to start its own Big Ten-like television network. The addition of Colorado moves the Pac-10 footprint into the fastest growing state in the nation and adds the Denver (#16) and Colorado Spring-Pueblo (#92) markets, 2 of the Top 100 markets in the nation. Numbers that will surely come in handy when it comes time to negotiate subscriber fees with cable companies.

The move doesn’t come cheap. Remember back in May when we told you to keep an eye out for the date June 30th? Here’s a quick reminder.

Now for expansion enthusiasts out there, here’s a real date to keep an eye on. June 30th.

Under Big 12 rules, [Colorado] could leave the conference without penalty should it provide 2 years notice. Should they take the jump immediately, as a “breaching member” they would owe the Big 12 a penalty equal to 80 percent of of it’s two-year conference revenues if notice isn’t given given by June 30th. That penalty increases to 90 percent before the end of this year or 100% if notice isn’t provided until 2011.

Colorado’s announcement today would mean they will beat the deadline easily. From the latest records obtained from the Big 12, Colorado receives $8.0 million annually from the Big 12′s disproportionate revenue sharing system, ranked 10th in the 12 member conference. It’s no wonder they were so eager to jump ship. But by beating the June 30th deadline, you are talking about an estimated $12.8 million in penalties. They can avoid these penalties altogether by providing a 2 years notice. Colorado will officially join and compete in Pac-10 athletics in 2012, so consider this their 2 year’s notice to the Big 12. But regardless of any potential penalties, the possible financial windfall of the new Pac-10 network, if it is remotely as successful as the Big Ten Network would simply outweigh them.

Queue the funeral march for the Big 12. RIP 1996-2010

Related Posts:

1. Qualified Applicants Need Apply: Nebraska will join Big Ten in 2011
2. Unqualified applicants need not apply: Missouri
3. Now, an Accelerated Timetable for the Big Ten

NittanyWhiteOut

As Julius Caesar returned from his Gallic conquests, and arrived at the Rubicon, he had a choice to make.  Crassus had died, and Pompey had taken over Rome, dissolving the triumvirate, and forbidding Caesar from maintaining his position in absentia. To cross that river with his sole legion meant to ignite a civil war, to create a new Rome where Caesar could be emperor. Caesar knew what he had to do.  He had to regain his power. Alea iacta est, he said. The die is cast. He had passed the point of no return.

I imagine a similar dialogue took place this afternoon in Lincoln, Nebraska.  Faced with the conundrum of staying in a shaky Big XII or crossing over to the Big Ten, Chancellor Harvey Perlman and Athletic Director Tom Osborne did what they had to do. Knowing full well that Texas, and their merry band in the Big XII south were ready to bolt at the slightest provocation, that once the Pac-10 expanded to 16 teams that the SEC and Big Ten were sure to follow, that college football and college sports would never be the same, Perlman and Osborne presumably took a deep breath.  Alea iacta est, I imagine they said. The die is cast.

In this fast-moving, information-laden world, everyone surely knows by now that earlier today, it was reported, by just about every reputable outlet, that Nebraska would join the Big Ten.  The formal announcement from the board of regents is expected Friday.  Though I’m just a few hours late, this might as well be yesterday’s news.  It’s also become apparent that this move is just the first, that Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Colorado are about to desert the rapidly imploding Big XII and head west, to the greener pastures of the Pac-10.  After months of speculation, well, this is it.  And this is just the start.   Now, the rest of the dominos start to fall.  What will happen to Missouri, to Kansas, to Kansas State?  Will the SEC or the Big Ten or the ACC blink first?  Will Notre Dame be forced to give up their status, as college football’s lone relevant independent team?  Soon enough, we’ll find out.

In Nebraska, the Big Ten moves in a direction few saw coming.  Though Missouri had embraced a potential invitation from college football’s oldest conference, they have been left out in the cold on expansion’s first day.  And though so many expected the Big Ten’s decision to come down to academics, demographics, and expanding the Big Ten Network’s footprint, Jim Delany has gone in the exact opposite direction, adding a school with ample tradition, with an instantly recognizable and familiar name–and a cash cow considered one of the most valuable programs in college sports–but without much of a built-in audience.

The state of Nebraska has a population of less than 2 million people, making it roughly as large as the Detroit or Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan areas.  Though a member of the Association of American Universities since 1909, and thus a major research institution, the University of Nebraska ranks 96th in the US News & World Report’s listing of the nation’s best colleges, placing it on an equal level as Alabama, and Stony Brook, and just ahead of Florida State.  And despite its cushy spot in the weakest division in college football, amongst competition they were expected to squash on a yearly basis, Nebraska has been merely good, having won the Big XII North just twice since 1999.  And in basketball, they’re one of just three power-conference schools to have never won an NCAA men’s tournament game (Northwestern and South Florida are the others).

But now, for better or for worse, they are a member of the Big Ten.  It will not be hard to develop a hatred of the Cornhuskers amongst Nittany Lions fans, since Tom Osborne helped to cheat Penn State out of a title in 1994, though that one’s as much on the AP voters as anything. And for Nebraska, it ensures that they’ll have a home after the dust settles, and one that comes with a built in revenue stream in excess of $22 million dollars.

As for me, well, I’m still waiting in anticipation to see where all the pieces fall.  When Texas and its cabal announce their move west, and the Big XII formally disbands, it will become official, that we are all witnesses to the reformation of college football as we know it.  The Rose Bowl, come 2012, may well be a matchup between Texas and Nebraska, or Notre Dame, or Rutgers.  I can’t wait to find out.

This is no longer our father’s Big Ten, and soon enough, nor will it be his Pac-10, his SEC, or his ACC.  In a few months’ time, we’ll know exactly what the future brings, but for now, it’ll just be more idle speculation.

But thanks to Nebraska, the die has been cast. Alea iacta est.  College football has passed the point of no return.

Related Posts:

1. Qualified Applicants Need Apply: Nebraska will join Big Ten in 2011
2. Now it’s Official: A Look from the Nebraska Sidelines
3. Now, an Accelerated Timetable for the Big Ten

NittanyWhiteOut

It’s decision time for Jim Delany and the Big Ten

Where there was smoke, fire has indeed emerged.  Chip Brown’s report, on Orangebloods.com has been verified, and it seems that Larry Scott, the Pac-10′s commissioner, is set to recommend expansion of six Big XII schools–Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and either Colorado or Baylor–during today’s conference meetings.

Whether all six of those schools are officially invited, and accepted into the conference remains to be seen, but the Big XII has gone on the defensive, reportedly issuing an ultimatum to Nebraska and Missouri, though officials from either schools are yet to confirm reports.

Missouri and Nebraska officials neither are confirming nor denying reports from Texas that the Tigers and Cornhuskers face a ultimatum to pledge allegiance to the Big 12 Conference or risk half the league taking a reported expected offer to join the Pac 10 Conference.

“Right now there’s nothing else we can say than what we’ve told you before,” said a University of Missouri news bureau spokesman speaking on behalf of UMC Chancellor Brady Deaton. “We’re a proud member of the Big 12 Conference.”

That didn’t answer the question of whether a deadline of next Friday — or possibly as late as June 15 — had been issued, as was reported by the Austin-American Statesman late Saturday night.

The Pac-10′s pursuit of, pretty much, the entire Big XII south has had obvious side effects.  Namely, they’ve sped up the Big Ten’s expansion process.  Even during April’s BCS meetings, Jim Delany dispelled rumors of an “accelerated timetable” to see the conference add one, or three, or even five new members, claiming that the evaluation process was still ongoing.  We weren’t to expect any concrete news for up to a year.

But now? The Pac-10 has set into motion a plan that has the Big Ten reeling.  Delany’s plan had been to strike the first domino, but now, they have to make a decision 10 months, or more, before schedule.  Would Nebraska or Missouri constitute a “home run” for the conference, or were they merely a smokescreen, for the conference’s pursuit of other, bigger, fish?  Either way, Jim Delany now has less than two weeks, maybe as little as just four days, to decide whether those schools are worthy of inclusion in the conference.

The Big Ten had been rumored of going in so many different directions–first, and most obviously, adding Notre Dame, or splitting apart the Big East by adding Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers; securing the New York market by adding Rutgers or Connecticut; and then looking south, or even trying to expand into the D.C. market by snagging Maryland.  Missouri had been one of the few schools to openly lobby for an invitation into the conference–even Governor Jay Nixon sought to “explore” entrance into the Big Ten, but during those meetings in April, Jim Delany had expressed an interest in moving to the south and west, with such unlikely names as Vanderbilt entering the mix, and Texas emerging as a top target. Missouri had been as much a fall-back plan as anything, and Nebraska, well, had been a bit of an enigma.  Not delivering too many TV markets, but plenty of tradition, Nebraska might have gone against everything we thought we knew the Big Ten sought in an expansion candidate.  In short, they were–and are–worth more to the Big XII, with its rivalries in place with Oklahoma and even Colorado–than to the Big Ten, though the allure of Big Ten money could sway the Huskers to the North.

Yet now, the Big Ten must choose whether it’s better to act now, or to hope that the pieces will fall into place.  And that decision will set the others into motion.  Should the Big Ten choose to wait things out, maybe counting on the SEC and ACC to pick apart the Big East, and letting Notre Dame fall right into their laps–Nebraska and Missouri would stick it out, and Texas would have a reason to stay in the Big XII.  In the end, the decisions of the Oklahoma schools, A&M, Texas Tech, and either Baylor or Colorado are almost certainly tied to the fate of Texas.  If Texas decides to bolt for the Pac-10, they all will.  Should the powers that be decide that maintaining the status quo is worth it? Dan Beebe, Big XII commissioner, will finally be able to exhale.  And that’s all dependent on what happens in Chicago, Lincoln and Columbia.

And yet, we’re still operating on the assumption that the Pac-10 will, indeed, extend offers to those six schools.  Larry Scott pulled off a brilliant maneuver, by recommending at least three of the Texas schools, because the state legislature would’ve put up bureaucratic red tape preventing either Texas or Texas A&M from joining the conference on their own.  But the Pac-10 rules require unanimous consent from all parties when voting on conference expansion.  For a school like Stanford, or Cal-Berkley, or even USC–schools with excellent academic reputations and remarkably strong athletic programs (all finished in the top 7 of last year’s Director’s Cup standings), would it be worth taking a flyer on schools like Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, who offer neither, even if it would mean losing out on Texas, and all of its programs and revenue streams?

In short, nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen.  There are so many moving parts that next Friday’s deadline for Nebraska and Missouri may come and go with a whimper, if indeed such a deadline exists.  Or, alternatively, we might have our first two members of the new Big Ten (the Big Fourteen? Sixteen?).  But the wheels of change have been set into motion, and we will know, soon enough, whether the landscape of college football as we know it is eroding rapidly beneath us.

Remember the uproar when the NCAA seemed set to expand the NCAA tournament to 96 teams?  The ripple waves that will begin with Nebraska and Missouri’s decisions next week may well make that change seem as benign as the inclusion of a 65th team to the tournament.

Related Posts:

1. Adding Texas: The Texas Tech Dilemma
2. Nebraska to Join the Big Ten: Alea Iacta Est
3. The Pac-10 Comes Out Swinging, but Texas to the Big Ten Emerges

NittanyWhiteOut

Boise State and TCU could find themselves playing regularly

With so much talk the last few months discussing Big Ten expansion, and the possible ramifications–not just within the conference, but in the responses by the Big XII, SEC, or ACC, and even regarding the continued feasibility of the Big East after, presumably, a member or two had been plucked–perhaps the most immediate news regarding the BCS’s future was overlooked in the shuffle.

Last month, the Bowl Championship Series, which governs college football’s post-season play, outlined how a conference not currently in the “Big 6,” the aforementioned leagues, plus the Pac-10, could earn an automatic berth to the BCS series of bowls.  And unsurprisingly, one conference in particular has earned the most speculation.

The Mountain West Conference has performed so well the last two seasons that it could receive an automatic bid to the BCS in the 2012 and ‘13 seasons.

BCS executive director Bill Hancock was hesitant Wednesday to say the MWC, which has placed Utah and TCU in the Bowl Championship Series the last two seasons, was on course to become the seventh automatic qualifying conference.

But he did tell the conference commissioners and athletic directors gathered here this week for meetings that they should be aware of the strides the Mountain West has made toward earning an automatic bid.

With the emergence of the Mountain West conference over the past few years, and the public groundswell of support for mid-major and small-conference teams, especially as it relates to a potential playoff scenario, it’s not hard to imagine Utah, TCU, and Brigham Young shedding that very label, and joining their on-the-field equals in terms of perceived stature.

But don’t consider this charity on the part of the BCS.  Those who run the the system would prefer to promote the traditional powers, the Texases, the Floridas, the Ohio States, the USCs, not just because of a claimed superiority, but because it makes more financial sense.  Those teams draw better TV ratings, and better attendance figures than do the mid-majors.  But the Mountain West achieving BCS status might be the only way for the Bowl Championship Series to survive.

Because mid-major teams are not guaranteed a spot in the 5 bowls that make up the Bowl Championship Series, (the Orange, Sugar, Rose, Fiesta, and BCS Championship Games), the BCS does not have to distribute the same amount of revenue to the schools in those conferences.  For proponents of a playoff, that’s been a key issue when deriding the unfairness of the current system.  Last year, for instance, the Big Ten and SEC received $22 million each from the BCS. The other four power conferences were awarded $17.7 million each.  But the 5 non-BCS conferences were granted just $24 million, to split among the leagues.  Consider that Notre Dame is awarded $1.3 million dollars annually, if they fail to reach a BCS bowl game, and the difference is even more staggering.

Rep. Joe Barton, a Texas Republican, has cited the revenue discrepancy as a reason for his legislation that would ban the promotion of a postseason NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision game as a national championship unless it results from a playoff. The bill passed a subcommittee last month but faces an uphill battle in Congress.

So what exactly would the Mountain West, or any other conference need to accomplish in order for one of its teams to earn an annual berth to any of the most prestigious, and highest paying, bowls?  There’s a three-part formula, and the conference in question would need to eclipse any BCS conference in all three.

• The BCS ranking of the conference’s top team
• The average computer ranking of the teams in the conference
• The number of teams in the conference ranked in the end-of-year Top 25 (adjusted by number of teams in the conference)

However, there is a caveat in the third criterion, that a conference that ranks in the top 6 of the first two thresholds only needs to be at 50% of the #1 team in the third category.

The SEC blog Team Speed Kills did the math, and showed exactly where the Mountain West stacked up against the other conferences.  Unfortunately, it wasn’t too pretty for the Mountain West, .  But they did uncover yet another caveat.

The computations will be made according to the conference’s membership on Dec. 4, 2011.

Why is that so important?  Because the rumor mill is starting to circulate that come the 2011 season, Boise State will join the Mountain West.  A Fresno, California TV Station reported that the Broncos, who have been perhaps the most elite non-BCS team over the past few seasons, will be offered a spot in the Mountain West conference.

Boise State, which has won two BCS games in the past 5 years, have established themselves as a top team heading into next season. Some have gone so far as to suggest that they might be the first mid-major team to earn a shot at the crystal football.  While that’s no given, the fact remains that the Broncos’ success has given credence to the idea that these teams might be just as good as one from the Big XII.

ESPN’s Joe Schad corroborated the report, though it’s probably not as done a deal as claimed.

But what would Boise State joining the Mountain West mean? Well, according to Team Speed Kills:

As far as 2008-09 goes, things look better. The MWC would soar to third in Criterion 1, edge into sixth ahead of the Big Ten in Criterion 2 (by a margin of 0.45), and it would be the top league in Criterion 3 by a wide margin with 28.75 points. In other words, the MWC would be in position to get an automatic bid without a petition.

With that in mind, would it even be possible for the Mountain West  to spurn Boise State?  With the Broncos joining Utah, TCU, Brigham Young, and Air Force, among several other lesser teams, the conference would boast as much talent at the top as the ACC or Big East, which, in all fairness, may not actually exist come 2011.  It would guarantee that conference an equal share of the BCS pie–the same $17 or $24 million that the other power conferences receive.  And most importantly, for the Bowl Championship Series, it would shut up detractors who claim that a playoff is the only chance for the mid-majors to receive equal consideration.

With this in mind, we would need to see an equal shift in the minds of voters as well as the potential institutional change.  If TCU or Boise State had been in a “power conference” last year, would they have received consideration for the national championship last year?  Probably not, since they’d still have been thought to play a lighter schedule than even the undefeated Cincinnati team that played just three ranked teams.

The Mountain West will still be treated as the red-headed stepchild of the BCS, with grudging acceptance rather than with whole-hearted welcoming.

But it would be a start, a much needed start, towards achieving equality for all of college football’s teams.  Once the Utahs and Boise States of the world are presented with the same BCS endgame as the members of the more prestigious conferences, it’s not hard to imagine an even greater push for a playoff structure.  We’ve seen the success of mid-major teams in BCS games over the past decade, and it’s not hard to imagine that they’d continue such play.  Once those teams prove that, on a  year-in, year-out basis they’re every bit the equals of the current Big 6, their next championship game snub might not be perceived as so just.

Of course, there’s no guarantee that college football will be the same, even five years down the line.  We’ve all read the articles about how Big Ten Expansion could set off an implosion into four superconferences, that those could even break off from the NCAA and set up their own structure.

But right now, that’s fantasy.  And all that’s concrete is the potentiality for the Mountain West to finally find themselves on equal footing as the power conferences.  Adding Boise State would be the first step towards fixing college football’s broken system.

Related Posts:

1. The Tornado Alley Divide: MWC vs Big East
2. A Modest (Playoff) Proposal
3. Los Insight Bowl partners with ESPN to increase prestige and exposure

NittanyWhiteOut

The “Unqualified applicants need not apply series” was created simply to present expansion hysteria, hype and noise and not necessarily reflect the actual viability of the featured candidate.

But in the case of Missouri, the rectal kissing is just laughable. As one of the charter members of the Big 12 when it formed in 1996, you would expect the Mizzou to be far more loyal than the rats abandoning a sinking ship imitation they are doing now.

“We should look at it if it’s offered. Going to the Big Ten is a step up in branding, it’s a step up in reputation,” Missouri Governor Jay Nixon told reporters Wednesday.

Even Missouri chancellor jumped in on the action:

On Tuesday, Deaton told The Associated Press that Missouri will “always do what is best for the university.” “You’ve got every major conference looking at how they should reposition or if they should reposition,” Deaton said. “I don’t think all the benefits and costs are known.”

Granted, they are only sound bites, but anything short of outright rejection of any possible expansion moves leaves it open for conjecture by the feeding frenzy of expansion enthusiasts. And the dissatisfaction growing in Columbia makes the move, if invited by the Big Ten, all the more likely.

Most of the anger at the Big 12 stems from the conference’s postseason selection policy which allows its bowl partners to select any eligible team, regardless of records and head to head results. Missouri has been affected by this policy on numerous occasions when they were bypassed by the Orange Bowl in 2007 when they selected Kansas, a team the Tigers had just beaten weeks earlier, instead of Missouri. For the past three years, Missouri has been passed over by more prestigious bowl games that selected teams it had either beaten or that ranked below the Tigers in conference standings.

Then you have the issue of disproportionate revenue sharing in the Big 12 which divides money unevenly based on television appearances. Member schools have complained how tough it is to compete with the conference’s biggest powers whose games are more likely to be televised in such a system. And all the while Missouri is watching border rival Illinois reap in the same mountains of gold as Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State regardless of their win-loss record.

So would Missouri make the jump should an invite be extended? You betcha.

This isn’t even the first attempt by the Mizzou to jump ship. On the verge of the Big Eight’s collapse in the early 90s, Missouri made it known to the Big Ten their eagerness to join the nation’s oldest conference. A group of state business leaders even formed a lobbying group to boost its efforts.

Now for expansion enthusiasts out there, here’s a real date to keep an eye on. June 30th.

Under Big 12 rules, Missouri could leave the conference without penalty should it provide 2 years notice. Should they take the jump immediately, as a “breaching member” they would owe the Big 12 a penalty equal to 80 percent of of it’s two-year conference revenues if notice isn’t given given by June 30th. That penalty increases to 90 percent before the end of this year or 100% if notice isn’t provided until 2011.

The penalties are stiff, but largely negligible to the Tigers should they make the jump to the Big Ten and allow me to explain. Missouri receives $6.4 million annually from the Big 12’s disproportionate revenue sharing system, ranked 6th in the 12 member conference, so you are really only talking about $10.24 million in penalties (2 year projection based on last season’s share of Big 12 revenues) should Missouri serve notice by June 30th.

The Big Ten currently pays it’s members an estimated $22 million annually according to the latest available tax documents. So expansion projections have Missouri receiving an extra $13 million a year due to the Big Ten’s equal revenue sharing system, amount to a 200.3% increase from the pittance it is earning now in the Big 12.

Now even if that number fluctuates depending on the number of eventual teams that will be invited, you are still talking about a substantial increase in revenue, numbers currently unheard of in Columbia. So with projections like that, a one-time, $10.24 million penalty seems relatively acceptable if it means a 200% increase in annual revenue a year in the long run.

This is why if an official invite is in place, and Missouri is as eager as state Governor Jay Nixon makes them out to be, there simply isn’t any reason for the Tigers not to try to make the June 30th deadline if it meant saving a bit of money in penalties.

Related Posts:

1. Unqualified applicants need not apply: Rutgers
2. We’re Talking Expansion: With Frank the Tank
3. Big Ten Statement on Expansion

NittanyWhiteOut

To those of you who aren’t Seinfeld fans, you probably have no idea what I’m talking about.  Here’s a refresher course.

But for those of you who know exactly what I’m talking about, you’re in for a treat.  Here at NittanyWhiteOut HQ, we’ve got our Festivus pole up, we’re preparing the Festivus dinner, and while we await the Festivus miracles and the feats of strength, we’ll take advantage of another Festivus tradition, the airing of greivances, and address some of the problems we have with some of Penn State’s decision-making in the past year.  Here it is everybody, how the following people have disappointed us in the past year:

• Hey, Tim Curley–do we really need to play 7.5 home games a year?  I’m pretty sure most other schools sponsor the same number of sports as Penn State does, and yet the vast majority of them aren’t afraid to play a marquee game every year.  So what the hell were you thinking when you asked Penn State fans to pay full price to watch games against such great opponents as Temple, Akron, and Eastern Illinois?  One of those games is fine, and two is acceptable, but when Syracuse is a stinker, and Temple ends up being your best non-conference opponent, somebody’s failed in the scheduling department.  Next year will be even better, with Alabama an away game, you’ll be treating fans to a lineup of Temple, Kent State, and Youngstown State, and a Big Ten slate devoid of any of the marquee teams in the conference means Northwestern might well be our best home game in 2010.  But that’s not all–implementing a new ticket policy for students which made it damn near impossible to even give your tickets away, much less sell them?  You deserve all the blame for the empty seats this year, not anyone else.  Now, we find out that you’re taking away our sideline seats and throwing all the students in the end zone? Do I need to remind you that the team is PENN STATE’s team and that we, as PENN STATE students, shouldn’t be tossed aside like an afterthought?  Shame on you, Mr. Curley, for selling out so brutally, and turning what actually once might have been “The Best Show in College Football” into a corporate farce of marketing.  Now, all fans will have to pay what amount to PSLs and you’re increasing prices across the board?  I can only hope that you, and Guido D’Elia get called out over and over again, especially when people look at the half empty student section for games like the aforementioned jokes and even against Minnesota in the snow.  You’ve ruined Paternoville, you’ve ruined tailgating, you’ve taken away all the beauty of college football-the marching bands, the tradition, in favor of cheesy pumped-in arena rock songs and corporate sponsorship.
• Hey, Joe Paterno–I’m not going to complain, as some “fans” have, that you should be forced out, that a 10-2 season is a disaster, that you’ve clearly lost touch with your players, because even if that was true, you’ve earned the right to go out on your own terms.  But after all these years, would it kill you to hire a special teams coach?  This year’s unit couldn’t have been worse, with Collin Wagner physically unable to kick a field goal of more than 40 or so yards and spotty on anything closer, with a punter who was solid but coverage that was a sieve, with a kick and punt return unit that put the ball on the floor more often than they broke a big one and a kick coverage unit that ranked among the worst in the country.  Take a look at Frank Beamer, and see what an advantage his teams have by dominating that area of the game. They’ve consistently created more scoring chances for themselves with big returns and key blocked kicks when they need them.  Now look at your team, and see that a blocked punt doomed us against Iowa and a long punt return against set the tone in the Ohio State game, and maybe, if our special teams were merely mediocre, we’d have won one of those games.  I know, not all schools have a special teams coordinator, but why wouldn’t you want to give your team the absolute best chance to compete?
• Hey, Darryl Clark–stop complaining.  Look, I like you, you were a good leader for this team, and whenever you’ve got a quarterback who’s a two-time All-Conference selection, you can’t argue about the production on the field.  That’s right Daryll, against the Michigan States and Illinoises and even the Michigans of the world you cleaned up.  But against Iowa, you were horrendous, twice, though your offensive line certainly wasn’t doing you any favors.  Against Ohio State this year, you couldn’t complete a pass of more than 5 yards.  And even though the Lions beat the Buckeyes last year in Columbus, you were on the bench while your backup scored the winning touchdown.  That’s why I take umbrage with a recent Twitter post you put up.  Sorry, Daryll, but I thought your legacy was on the line against Ohio State this year, and, well, we both know how that turned out.  You were a great quarterback for us, but no matter what happens on New Year’s Day, you’ll be remembered as the QB who couldn’t win the big one.  So don’t worry, Daryll, your legacy isn’t on the line, it’s already been determined.  Just not the way you’d like.  That’s not to say I’d take these years back, that’s not to say I’d prefer Pat Devlin, that’s not to say I don’t appreciate and respect all you’ve done for this team.  Your legacy will always be as a great leader, as someone who put the Anthony Morelli years firmly in the rearview mirror, and who excelled in the vast majority of his games.  This grievance is just to beg you not to be indignant when you had the chance to leave your mark. Sorry, Daryll, but you’re no Michael Robinson.

Hat tip to BSD

• Hey, Cael Sanderson–I get it, you’re quite possibly the greatest wrestler of all time, you’re an Olympic legend, and you’re a hell of a wrestling coach.  We were all thrilled when you came here, and early returns, both on the mat and in wrestling recruiting, have been sparkling.  You’re certainly earning the record contract that you signed, even though some (me) might argue that the money would be better spent on bringing in some marquee opponents for the football team.  But this isn’t about that.  This is about your dictator-like tendencies to suspend a wrestler for having a beer on his 21st birthday.  You made it a team rule that wrestlers couldn’t drink any alcohol during the wrestling season, and I really don’t like that rule.  These wrestlers are just kids, college students, and it’s not fair to hold your athletes to that high of a standard.  I’m not suggesting that these student-athletes should be going out and getting drunk every weekend, but how about a little trust in your kids to be responsible?  One beer on his 21st birthday isn’t taking this wrestler out of his game, it’s not making him out of shape, and that rule serves no purpose other than to assert your dominance, Mr. Sanderson, over a bunch of college students.  I know, you want your wrestlers to be at their peak physical condition, but why can’t we just let kids be kids, and athletes second?
• Hey, Floyd Mayweather–man up and fight Manny Pacquiao.
• Hey, Phillies fans–realize that you got completely fleeced in the Roy Halladay trade.
• Hey, anybody on the Penn State basketball team other than Talor Battle–please, help that man out. He can’t do it all on his own, okay?
• Hey, Ed DeChellis–you should have a play that doesn’t involve dicking around until there are 5 seconds left on the shot clock and then having Talor Battle throw up an off-balance three.
• Hey, readers–thanks for your support of NittanyWhiteOut over the past year, have a Merry Christmas, Joyous Kwanzaa, for those of you who celebrated a Chappy Chanukah last week, I hope your candles burned bright, and to all: May your 2010s be better than your 2009s!

Related Posts:

1. Happy birthday Joe Paterno!
2. Scoping out the Secondary Market
3. Is Greg Paulus coming to Happy Valley?

NittanyWhiteOut

To celebrate the upcoming new year, and new decade, we’ll be offering a retrospective here at NittanyWhiteOut. Over the next two weeks, we’ll reveal all the members of NittanyWhiteOut’s All-Decade team, comprising of the best Penn Staters from 2000-2009. Don’t agree with our picks? Let your voice be heard in the comments! We continue today with a look back at Penn State’s best defensive tackles of the past decade.

Defensive tackle isn’t always the most glorious position to play. While defensive ends are tasked with getting after the quarterback, and linebackers have the duty to tackle the ball carrier, the defensive tackles make it all possible by clogging running lanes and eating up blockers. The best mark of a defensive tackle doing his job is the superior play of everyone around him, and our choices below went above and beyond just that. They pressured the quarterback, pushing back blockers and penetrating beyond the line of scrimmage. They swallowed up ball carriers, not even letting them get to the next level. Their superior play bolstered tremendous defensive performances, and as such, they make the NittanyWhiteOut All-Decade team.

Jimmy Kennedy (1999-2002) stood out in an era in which not too many Nittany Lions excelled. While stories of Kennedy’s girth are legendary–the commonly repeated story is that he came into Penn State weighing close to 400 pounds, his play on the field was perhaps just as epic. A four-year starter for Penn State, Kennedy made an immediate impact on a struggling program, being named an all-Big Ten honorable mention player in his sophomore season and an first-team all-conference player in his junior seasons, despite the abject failure of the rest of the team around him. With Penn State struggling, Kennedy weighed heavily a decision to enter the NFL a year early, but chose to return to Penn State for his senior year, a move that paid obvious dividends, as Kennedy experienced a metamorphosis, from a solid tackle to one of the best linemen in the country. As a senior, Kennedy racked up 87 tackles, 5.5 sacks, and even knocked down 3 passes at the line, en route to a spot on the All-America team. A finalist for all sorts of post-season awards, Kennedy found himself a first-round draft pick, 12th overall, and one of 4 Nittany Lions drafted in the first round of the 2003 NFL Draft, though he has failed to find the same success in the NFL that he did during his Penn State playing days.

Jared Odrick (2006-2009) came to Penn State with considerable fanfare, a consensus All-American, and lived up to that promise almost immediately. Though he saw the field very little as a freshman, by his sophomore season Odrick was making a big impact on the Lions defense, playing both defensive end and tackle. Going into his junior season, Odrick was firmly entrenched as a starter at defensive tackle, and following the dismissals of Chris Baker and Phil Taylor before the season, and exacerbated by the mid-season legal issues of Abe Koroma, Odrick was thrust into an every-down role. Jared wouldn’t be on this list if he didn’t rise to the occasion, and, after a 4.5-sack, 10-TFL season, Odrick was named to the all-Big Ten first team. Odrick was even better in his senior season, coming through with 6 sacks and countless pressures despite constant double-teaming. Though the Big Ten media listed Odrick as merely a second-team player, the coaches not only voted him as the best defensive lineman, but as their conference player of the year, perhaps the ultimate form of respect. Odrick was also named to the CBS All-America team and the AFCA All-America team, as voted on by the coaches of the NCAA.

Honorable Mentions: Jay Alford, Anthony Adams

Related Posts:

1. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Defensive Ends
2. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Offensive Tackles
3. The Penn State All-Decade Team: Safety

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

There’s still a weekend of football remaining, but soon after this season’s conclusion will come the Big Ten’s annual all-conference selections, with several Boilermakers in line for honors. This and more in this FREE report from Coach Danny Hope’s (pictured) weekly press conference

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Former Michigan assistant coach Jerry Hanlon still thinks and preaches like he’s sending a team onto the field on Saturday. In other words, while everyone else outside of Schembechler Hall is relaxing over Delaware State, Hanlon is sounding words of caution

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Wide receiver Keith Smith (pictured) sees no greater opportunity than this season, when the Boilermakers get a chance to break their losing streak against the Big Ten’s premier squad, Ohio State. An audio interview inside.

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Former Michigan assistant coach Jerry Hanlon gives his take on the Iowa game, exclusively via The Wolverine Radio On Demand. Hanlon discusses the quarterback situation at the end of the game, Rich Rodriguez’s animated sideline observations, and much more

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Rivals’ David Fox takes a look back at the first half of the 2009 Big Ten season and hands out his midseason awards. Wisconsin’s John Clay is his offensive player of the year, but who takes home the other honors? Fox also looks ahead and previews this weekend’s conference games

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

A roundup of all the day’s links to headlines about the Wolverines

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

As the Big Ten season commences this Saturday, Michigan and Indiana are both eager to take another big step forward. Each 3-0, a win would further prove their candidacy among the conference elite. How do they match up? And who comes out on top? We take a look

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Notre Dame week is a special for every Purdue football player who has played, and for Kitch it is no different. Read what simple phrase former assistant Jim Chaney (pictured) used to say to motivate the Boilermakers.

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Beating Notre Dame is almost a prerequisite to be considered a great quarterback at Purdue. For senior Joey Elliott (pictured) he will need to have a special performance for Purdue to prevail tomorrow night. This and more in today’s video report.

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

Former Michigan assistant coach Jerry Hanlon discusses the start of the Big Ten football season, including the arrival of the Indiana Hoosiers. Hanlon breaks down the 3-0 Hoosiers, while also discussing how Michigan stacks up in this usually lopsided affair

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

As the Nittany Lions prepare for their much-anticipated match-up with Iowa on Saturday, Paternoville residents got a special surprise on Thursday night. Quarterback Daryll Clark and his wideouts stopped by to get everyone hyped for the big game.

College Sports: Rivals.com Headlines

KENOSHA, Wis. — For the second-straight day, junior linebacker Quentin Davie (St. Louis, Mo./Cardinal Ritter) de-cleated a superback at Northwestern’s practice in Kenosha. Northwestern ran a full-pad single practice midday Tuesday at Camp Kenosha on the heels of a double session Monday. Here are the practice notes from NUSports.com